War Drums Are Beating From Ankara to Damascus (By True)

Guess who's gonna sing the high notes.

The current Syria-related events and developments represent no disorder or spontaneous meaningless actions. A careful, detail searching eye can easily notice a pre-made orchestrated solfège being composed by many singers (i.e., stakeholders), the US starts with “Fa” to receive “Re” from the EU while Turkey amplifies with “Sol”  and AL resonate with “Mi”.   Contrary to the regime’s reactionist behavior, most of these lately rolled-out developments are pre-planned and systematically driven by many hidden and obvious interested parties, and indisputably a multi-phases strategy combined with an exponential applied-pressure plan is currently in place in order to reach multiple goals of ousting the current Syrian regime and reshuffling power-balance in the region. I’m happy to refer to this ongoing strategy as PLCPO.

Poking (achieved) → Lobbying (achieved) → Cornering (achieved) → Pressuring (In progress) → Ousting (Yet to come)

First and foremost  it’s imperative to emphasise that such an analysis does not suggest any harmony or credit to the conspiracy theory plot, narrated by the regime’s propaganda. Fundamentally, this revolution was purely incubated and given birth by the regime itself. The first spark was ultimately a natural human answer to al-ASSAD’s cousins and cronies behaviour (refereeing to the direct reason of arresting and torturing underage kids by the al-ASSAD’s cousin and appointed governor of Dar’aa)  and surely was intensified and spread across the country as a result of incompetent leaders and policy makers who have no clue about something called crisis management or conflict resolution or maybe it’s a lack of interest to save the country for that matter.

Further to invading Dar’aa by the fourth division of the Syrian army (Alawi Republican Guard lead by Maher al-ASSAD) and after analysing the fast break-out of the unrest across Syria, the MİT (The Turkish National Intelligence Organization: Milli İstihbarat Teşkilatı) rushed to conclude, naively I must say, that the regime’s structure started shaking and showing all needed symptoms to safely assume that it would be ousted in a matter of few weeks. Erdoğan, on many occasions, elucidated that “whatever happens in Syria is our internal affair”,  and in return did put his hand up assuring to all different interested parties his confidence and competence for that matter of taming al-ASSAD and stripping his regime naked in favour to his allies of MB and Gulf countries. That’s exactly when the actual “poking” phase started and Erdoğan & Davutoglu  (well every Turkish official for that matter) started appearing on every night’s show instructing al-ASSAD and giving him all sorts of humiliation. The problem of this phase was the lack of actual plan (based on MİT prediction) and missing on tangible pressure tools (i.e. Turkey gave ultimatums many times but in reality those were shallow and empty ones). Consequently, al-ASSAD showed his stubbornness and rejection to all peaceful solutions offered, and in return after understanding its position Ankara went silent all of a sudden.

Further to this bottleneck and for many internal reasons (Alevis, PPK , opposition ..etc) Turkey asked to step aside to reflect and develop needed plans to counter future expected ramifications in its confrontation with al-ASSAD.  The events kept rolling-out hastily and both EU & USA marched in taking the lead to begin the next phase of “Lobbying”. In this phase and after surrounding facts have emerged and become more apparent (i.e. no major army defection, lack of organised opposition, major split in votes within SCUN and Libyan’s lessons learnt) the West was more primed and prepared to tackle the round nattily but remotely this time, and that’s when the regime was hammered by chicly engineered economic & political medium sanctions, which proved its efficiency and the Syrian pound along with the regime itself were aching under the pressure of such sanctions.

Syrian National council (SNC) emerging and Free Syrian Army (FSA) founding were stark signs of revolution maturity declaring the commencement of the third phase of “Cornering”. In this phase the fire-ball was handed to AL and a tricky initiative was conceptualised leaving the regime the choice between the bitter and bitterest. Accounting the regime’s history in breaking its promises and failing to see the big picture, would make this initiative nothing but a death note, it was literally a choice between putting the head directly on the chopping board or to circle couple or few times around the board before meeting the inevitable end. Sadly speaking, whoever developed this cunning plan did not account for the precious spilled Syrian blood.

In next to no time,  we will witness the commencement of the “Pressuring” phase where sharp and unexpected twists will occur here and there. In this phase we might see Turkey coming back to lead the efforts and pressure campaign again, but this time Turkey is more equipped and ready to sort out some old open debt (from phase one) with al-ASSAD. Ankara was extremely busy in last few months developing tactics and strategies of how to tackle the regime’s strength and resilience. This might take different shapes from imposing economic sanctions and anti-regime campaigning  all the way to arm FSA and maybe going into proxy war. A war, yes it would be a war by all measures, which might start with pushing Syrian border scrutinizing towers tens of Kms back, or declaring a buffer-zone over a night accompanied with no-fly, no-vehicles and surely no-alASSAD criteria. Ankara lacks no surgeons to go ahead and conduct this legitimate & delicate surgery of extracting al-ASSAD’s teeth and regain its lost presence closing this devastating chapter of our history and closing the phase of “Ousting” .

The regime is acting business as usual as I’m typing these line, a business of terrorising, subjugating and killing. The revolution is budding and surely the harvest is coming, but the question is when? I have no idea but I’m sure the answer is in Ankara.



Posted on November 8, 2011, in Regime, Syria and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 272 Comments.

  1. Some guy no longer in Damascus

    I am fully satisfied with the Arab leagues latest decision.

  2. Thank you Hamster for your kind words.

    Why putting up with the regime so long ?

    When I lived in Syria (2002-2007) I did not realise how bad it was because I had somehow slipped a self censoring chip in my brain; I just knew not to say certain things (or even think certain thoughts). I had no contacts with the opposition. I remember seeing one day near Bagdad street lots of police and when I asked what happened, I was told there were pple protesting for human rights. I could not relate to that, thinking “sure, they are crazy”.

    Once, I had an appointment with Ammar Abdulhamid who at the time was in a lot of trouble, and eventually left the country, and I chickened out when I was told this is not moufid. Once I published a post requesting timidly a little more freedom and hope for a future and I took it down when met with displeasure. So there was nothing heroic about my stance.

    I went to “spontaneous” demonstrations but without any problem of conscience since it was protesting the Iraq war or the Mehlis report.

    But I felt really humiliated at election time with these tents along the otstrad where people had better show up. And the whole mockery of the ballots; it was utter contempt towards Syrians. Yet I did not write about that and I really wanted to settle in Syria for good.

    A half hearted loyalty to the regime was made possible because of its position in relationship to the cumbersome neighbour and the US. And the fact that Palestinians were better treated in Syria than in Lebanon for instance.

    And when the revolution started and I was safely banned in Belgium I still hesitated to side with the rebellion out of fear for the possible doubtful alliances the opponents might get into. Finally, the unspeakable cruelty of the repression made it an easy jump. The “benevolent” doctor became a monster and he has to go. And I must say that Burhan won my heart.

  3. True, Zenobia,

    I will guarantee you something: I will NOT bring up the issue of Israel and Zionism first. If you noticed (and more so on SC’s conspiracy-laden website), the topic of Israel is almost always brought up out of nowhere by ARAB participants. Perhaps you should ask the Arab participants here to keep the issue local to Syria as well.

    Anyway I agree that the purpose of this website at this time is how to gain freedom for Syrians.

  4. SGNLID said I am fully satisfied with the Arab leagues latest decision.

    I feel the same way. It is a step in the right direction.

  5. SGID

    “I am fully satisfied with the Arab leagues latest decision.”

    A strong, decisive decision with tangible and immediate effect. Who are these people, and what have they done with the REAL Arab League? :p

    Hey Besho, whoever told you that an assault on Baba Amr would finish everything off either 1) really hates you 2) has it in for you 3) really wants to see you go 4) all of the above.

    Yesterday I said that it was a 50/50 chance that the Arab League would take the actions it took. I had no idea that the voting would be so overwhelmingly in favor. Iraq abstained, and only The Syrian province of Greater Beirut Lebanon and Yemen voted against. Astonishing.

    The AL also directly addressed the Syrian Army. A strong, strong signal, not very subtle, but the significance of which will of course go over the head of the Baathists. Maybe we should draw them a diagram. In crayon.

  6. On this website, I’m restrained. Elsewhere, as SGID can tell you, I’m gloating in a very shameful way 🙂 🙂 🙂

  7. The AL, clearly, blamed the violence on the regime.

  8. Dear Akbar Palace,
    Please try to restrain yourself for the time being and keep in mind that Israel is part and parcel of what is happening in Syria. It has been and still is the reason for everything happening in Syria, according to the Syrian regime. The “big conspiracy” is always blamed mainly on Israel and the US. So when people bring up Israel, it is not in an effort to antagonize you, it is just part of the problem we are facing. I hope you can understand the dilemma.

  9. Dear Aboud, Mundas and SGID,
    At the risk of sounding like all other conspiracy theorists, I would like to contend that the US and some countries in Europe have played a role in the bold decision made today by the Arab League, just like what happened to Libya.
    By the way, I admire all three of you very much. You are in the middle of it all, unlike us sitting in the comfort of our homes somewhere else in the world.
    Aboud, I talked to my sister-in-law, who is from Homs (currently lives in Halab with my traitor of a brother). She still has family in Homs. She was in the US visiting. She told me horror stories of what is going on there. Just unbelievable.
    SGID, Halab has been boiling for a while. All the outspoken pro-regime Halabis are from the upper middle class. The majority of the population is like everybody else in Syria and feels like everybody else in Syria. You can see that it is the same areas demonstrating in Halab: Salah alddeen, Alsakhour, Kahouet alshaar and Seif al Dowleh. As I have always said: it is just a matter of time.

  10. Dear Annie,
    Please do not feel bad. Your experience and attitude toward the Syrian regime was echoed by many well intentioned people. Who wants chaos and disorder?. We really believed that the guy was serious about reform and looked at China as a proof that it could be done, but alas, things kept getting worse.

  11. The regime’s response, is, not surprisingly, as follows;

    “Conspiracy conspiracy America conspiracy conspiracy tools of the Zionists conspiracy conspiracy conspiracy plot conspiracy plot plot conspiracy”.

    What I didn’t see coming was the way the regime’s representative swore at Nabil Al Arabi and the Qatar FM. I mean, he actually used swear words. Man, what diplomatic school did he graduate from? Once again, the Waleed Mu’allem doctrine never fails to astonish us. At the very moment the regime needed to call upon extraordinary diplomatic finesse and sophistication in negotiations….their rep swore at the other reps *facepalm*

  12. Did he really, Aboud? I want to see it. I will start searching.

  13. Sheila said “the US and some countries in Europe have played a role in the bold decision made ”

    I have no doubt. But frankly, I don’t care.

  14. Haytham Khoury

    Dear Sheila:

    This is international politics. The whole plan was devised by the foreign ministers of Qatar and France.
    I wrote about the role of Hamad ibn Jassim (the foreign minister of Qatar) in my last article.

    The US is in the backseat with the Obama doctrine of “leading from behind”. I wrote one day comment on Obama policy saying “If you lead from behind, you get only the behind”.

  15. Mousa Ibrahim has morphed into a fat white-haired old man frothing at the mouth in the Syrian Mafia’s embassy in Cairo.

  16. Yes Sheila, Al Arabiya reported it. And just when I thought the day couldn’t get any better, we were treated to the regime’s ambassador’s “press conference”. He was hysterical, accusing 19 Arab countries of being in the pay of the Americans.

    My favorite part was when he claimed that on the 3rd of November, 68 mutilated bodies were discovered in Homs. In public squares no less. And one of them was a school bus full of children, who apparently were so enthusiastic about their studies that they went to school DURING THE EID HOLIDAYS! *facepalm*

  17. @ Aboud

    I want to see this clip too. can somebody post it?

  18. The regime ambassador swearing at the Arab League occurred during the meeting, it wasn’t televised. But Al Arabiya reported and subsequent commentators mentioned it. I’m sure some newspaper or website will provide the details.

    In-between the 15th and 16th mention of the word “conspiracy”, the regime’s trumpet just called the Qatari FM “The Foreign Minister of Israel” on Al Arabiya. He also threatened to burn the Gulf. I pray the trumpets get given all the airtime they could ever want. No need to give equal time to the opposition, the trumpets are capable of hanging themselves with their own words. “Conspiracy conspiracy plot plot 19 Arab nations are in the pay of Obama who is in the pay of Zionists who are in the pay of Qatar who are in the pay of Zionists”.

  19. woooow.

  20. Another part of Yousef al Ahmed press conference:

  21. A new post is up in few minutes.

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