The current Syria-related events and developments represent no disorder or spontaneous meaningless actions. A careful, detail searching eye can easily notice a pre-made orchestrated solfège being composed by many singers (i.e., stakeholders), the US starts with “Fa” to receive “Re” from the EU while Turkey amplifies with “Sol” and AL resonate with “Mi”. Contrary to the regime’s reactionist behavior, most of these lately rolled-out developments are pre-planned and systematically driven by many hidden and obvious interested parties, and indisputably a multi-phases strategy combined with an exponential applied-pressure plan is currently in place in order to reach multiple goals of ousting the current Syrian regime and reshuffling power-balance in the region. I’m happy to refer to this ongoing strategy as PLCPO.
Poking (achieved) → Lobbying (achieved) → Cornering (achieved) → Pressuring (In progress) → Ousting (Yet to come)
First and foremost it’s imperative to emphasise that such an analysis does not suggest any harmony or credit to the conspiracy theory plot, narrated by the regime’s propaganda. Fundamentally, this revolution was purely incubated and given birth by the regime itself. The first spark was ultimately a natural human answer to al-ASSAD’s cousins and cronies behaviour (refereeing to the direct reason of arresting and torturing underage kids by the al-ASSAD’s cousin and appointed governor of Dar’aa) and surely was intensified and spread across the country as a result of incompetent leaders and policy makers who have no clue about something called crisis management or conflict resolution or maybe it’s a lack of interest to save the country for that matter.
Further to invading Dar’aa by the fourth division of the Syrian army (Alawi Republican Guard lead by Maher al-ASSAD) and after analysing the fast break-out of the unrest across Syria, the MİT (The Turkish National Intelligence Organization: Milli İstihbarat Teşkilatı) rushed to conclude, naively I must say, that the regime’s structure started shaking and showing all needed symptoms to safely assume that it would be ousted in a matter of few weeks. Erdoğan, on many occasions, elucidated that “whatever happens in Syria is our internal affair”, and in return did put his hand up assuring to all different interested parties his confidence and competence for that matter of taming al-ASSAD and stripping his regime naked in favour to his allies of MB and Gulf countries. That’s exactly when the actual “poking” phase started and Erdoğan & Davutoglu (well every Turkish official for that matter) started appearing on every night’s show instructing al-ASSAD and giving him all sorts of humiliation. The problem of this phase was the lack of actual plan (based on MİT prediction) and missing on tangible pressure tools (i.e. Turkey gave ultimatums many times but in reality those were shallow and empty ones). Consequently, al-ASSAD showed his stubbornness and rejection to all peaceful solutions offered, and in return after understanding its position Ankara went silent all of a sudden.
Further to this bottleneck and for many internal reasons (Alevis, PPK , opposition ..etc) Turkey asked to step aside to reflect and develop needed plans to counter future expected ramifications in its confrontation with al-ASSAD. The events kept rolling-out hastily and both EU & USA marched in taking the lead to begin the next phase of “Lobbying”. In this phase and after surrounding facts have emerged and become more apparent (i.e. no major army defection, lack of organised opposition, major split in votes within SCUN and Libyan’s lessons learnt) the West was more primed and prepared to tackle the round nattily but remotely this time, and that’s when the regime was hammered by chicly engineered economic & political medium sanctions, which proved its efficiency and the Syrian pound along with the regime itself were aching under the pressure of such sanctions.
Syrian National council (SNC) emerging and Free Syrian Army (FSA) founding were stark signs of revolution maturity declaring the commencement of the third phase of “Cornering”. In this phase the fire-ball was handed to AL and a tricky initiative was conceptualised leaving the regime the choice between the bitter and bitterest. Accounting the regime’s history in breaking its promises and failing to see the big picture, would make this initiative nothing but a death note, it was literally a choice between putting the head directly on the chopping board or to circle couple or few times around the board before meeting the inevitable end. Sadly speaking, whoever developed this cunning plan did not account for the precious spilled Syrian blood.
In next to no time, we will witness the commencement of the “Pressuring” phase where sharp and unexpected twists will occur here and there. In this phase we might see Turkey coming back to lead the efforts and pressure campaign again, but this time Turkey is more equipped and ready to sort out some old open debt (from phase one) with al-ASSAD. Ankara was extremely busy in last few months developing tactics and strategies of how to tackle the regime’s strength and resilience. This might take different shapes from imposing economic sanctions and anti-regime campaigning all the way to arm FSA and maybe going into proxy war. A war, yes it would be a war by all measures, which might start with pushing Syrian border scrutinizing towers tens of Kms back, or declaring a buffer-zone over a night accompanied with no-fly, no-vehicles and surely no-alASSAD criteria. Ankara lacks no surgeons to go ahead and conduct this legitimate & delicate surgery of extracting al-ASSAD’s teeth and regain its lost presence closing this devastating chapter of our history and closing the phase of “Ousting” .
The regime is acting business as usual as I’m typing these line, a business of terrorising, subjugating and killing. The revolution is budding and surely the harvest is coming, but the question is when? I have no idea but I’m sure the answer is in Ankara.