War Drums Are Beating From Ankara to Damascus (By True)

Guess who's gonna sing the high notes.

The current Syria-related events and developments represent no disorder or spontaneous meaningless actions. A careful, detail searching eye can easily notice a pre-made orchestrated solfège being composed by many singers (i.e., stakeholders), the US starts with “Fa” to receive “Re” from the EU while Turkey amplifies with “Sol”  and AL resonate with “Mi”.   Contrary to the regime’s reactionist behavior, most of these lately rolled-out developments are pre-planned and systematically driven by many hidden and obvious interested parties, and indisputably a multi-phases strategy combined with an exponential applied-pressure plan is currently in place in order to reach multiple goals of ousting the current Syrian regime and reshuffling power-balance in the region. I’m happy to refer to this ongoing strategy as PLCPO.

Poking (achieved) → Lobbying (achieved) → Cornering (achieved) → Pressuring (In progress) → Ousting (Yet to come)

First and foremost  it’s imperative to emphasise that such an analysis does not suggest any harmony or credit to the conspiracy theory plot, narrated by the regime’s propaganda. Fundamentally, this revolution was purely incubated and given birth by the regime itself. The first spark was ultimately a natural human answer to al-ASSAD’s cousins and cronies behaviour (refereeing to the direct reason of arresting and torturing underage kids by the al-ASSAD’s cousin and appointed governor of Dar’aa)  and surely was intensified and spread across the country as a result of incompetent leaders and policy makers who have no clue about something called crisis management or conflict resolution or maybe it’s a lack of interest to save the country for that matter.

Further to invading Dar’aa by the fourth division of the Syrian army (Alawi Republican Guard lead by Maher al-ASSAD) and after analysing the fast break-out of the unrest across Syria, the MİT (The Turkish National Intelligence Organization: Milli İstihbarat Teşkilatı) rushed to conclude, naively I must say, that the regime’s structure started shaking and showing all needed symptoms to safely assume that it would be ousted in a matter of few weeks. Erdoğan, on many occasions, elucidated that “whatever happens in Syria is our internal affair”,  and in return did put his hand up assuring to all different interested parties his confidence and competence for that matter of taming al-ASSAD and stripping his regime naked in favour to his allies of MB and Gulf countries. That’s exactly when the actual “poking” phase started and Erdoğan & Davutoglu  (well every Turkish official for that matter) started appearing on every night’s show instructing al-ASSAD and giving him all sorts of humiliation. The problem of this phase was the lack of actual plan (based on MİT prediction) and missing on tangible pressure tools (i.e. Turkey gave ultimatums many times but in reality those were shallow and empty ones). Consequently, al-ASSAD showed his stubbornness and rejection to all peaceful solutions offered, and in return after understanding its position Ankara went silent all of a sudden.

Further to this bottleneck and for many internal reasons (Alevis, PPK , opposition ..etc) Turkey asked to step aside to reflect and develop needed plans to counter future expected ramifications in its confrontation with al-ASSAD.  The events kept rolling-out hastily and both EU & USA marched in taking the lead to begin the next phase of “Lobbying”. In this phase and after surrounding facts have emerged and become more apparent (i.e. no major army defection, lack of organised opposition, major split in votes within SCUN and Libyan’s lessons learnt) the West was more primed and prepared to tackle the round nattily but remotely this time, and that’s when the regime was hammered by chicly engineered economic & political medium sanctions, which proved its efficiency and the Syrian pound along with the regime itself were aching under the pressure of such sanctions.

Syrian National council (SNC) emerging and Free Syrian Army (FSA) founding were stark signs of revolution maturity declaring the commencement of the third phase of “Cornering”. In this phase the fire-ball was handed to AL and a tricky initiative was conceptualised leaving the regime the choice between the bitter and bitterest. Accounting the regime’s history in breaking its promises and failing to see the big picture, would make this initiative nothing but a death note, it was literally a choice between putting the head directly on the chopping board or to circle couple or few times around the board before meeting the inevitable end. Sadly speaking, whoever developed this cunning plan did not account for the precious spilled Syrian blood.

In next to no time,  we will witness the commencement of the “Pressuring” phase where sharp and unexpected twists will occur here and there. In this phase we might see Turkey coming back to lead the efforts and pressure campaign again, but this time Turkey is more equipped and ready to sort out some old open debt (from phase one) with al-ASSAD. Ankara was extremely busy in last few months developing tactics and strategies of how to tackle the regime’s strength and resilience. This might take different shapes from imposing economic sanctions and anti-regime campaigning  all the way to arm FSA and maybe going into proxy war. A war, yes it would be a war by all measures, which might start with pushing Syrian border scrutinizing towers tens of Kms back, or declaring a buffer-zone over a night accompanied with no-fly, no-vehicles and surely no-alASSAD criteria. Ankara lacks no surgeons to go ahead and conduct this legitimate & delicate surgery of extracting al-ASSAD’s teeth and regain its lost presence closing this devastating chapter of our history and closing the phase of “Ousting” .

The regime is acting business as usual as I’m typing these line, a business of terrorising, subjugating and killing. The revolution is budding and surely the harvest is coming, but the question is when? I have no idea but I’m sure the answer is in Ankara.

TRUE

Advertisements

272 Comments

  1. Dear Aboud,
    I understand your point, but still think that we can not be so smug. It is really just a matter of timing. People could have said the same things that you are now accusing the Iranians of, about Syrians in January 2011. We have been behaving like obedient sheep for decades. I would also like to point out that Iran is in a much better place than Syria. With all its problems, it still has a semblance of Democracy and a sliver of checks and balances, not like us, ruled by a family of thugs whose only interest is their own gain.

  2. Arab Criticism of Syria Could be a Tad more Forceful NewZ

    If the ability of the AL to pressure Israel is a measure for comparison, then it is hopeless.

    Hamster,

    Why do you say that? I am sure the AL had a substantial role in the gazillion UN resolutions against Israel, so jeepers, maybe one day, Syria will garner ONE-TENTH (10%) of the UN venom Israel has had to put up wiith!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Nations_resolutions_concerning_Israel

  3. Dear Annie,
    I am in awe of this courageous woman, Fadwa Souleiman. As an individual, she has been able to achieve what would take an army of media to accomplish. As an Alawii, she is able to prove that this is not a sectarian uprising, rather a popular one. By her acts of heroism, she will be saving many innocent lives after this regime perishes. She left no room for doubt that the Alawiis can not be blamed for what the regime thugs are doing. I just hope and pray that people in Syria will always remember Fadwa Souleiman before passing judgment on any minority.

  4. Thank you all for your kind responses and explanations. I suspected as much from Alex and Josh but I did not want to judge based on impressions at least alone.
    I think that from the outset there were skewed views about the regime, its supporters, and its detractors. It is now more evident.

  5. I got distracted and did not visit Syria Comment for a few weeks.

    When I popped back in, I found the site dominated by the Mafia. It took me a while to discover where the good guys had migrated to.

    I am happy to find you again.

  6. Why not follow Fadwa Suleiman’s example and have a symbolic hunger strike internationally, like the 24 hours one we had in Brussels for Palestinian prisoners ?

    Is it feasible ?

    I am getting in touch with the Syrians here.

  7. Akbar
    You got a point . And I partially like the tone of your note. Here it is, with modification

    Syrian Hamster Says to the AL (Thanks to AP for concept)

    I am sure the AL had a substantial role in the gazillion UN resolutions against Israel, so jeepers, maybe now, Syria will garner ONE-TENTH (10%) of the UN’s Condemnation of Israel’s thuggish Behavior. About time start with Thuggish Arabs.

  8. The Arab League Saves the Day NewZ

    About time start with Thuggish Arabs.

    Syrian Hamster,

    I think so, why not? “Thuggish arabs” have made Israel’s perceived and actual crimes pale in comparison. Maybe Arabs do not like publicly pressuring their own and prefer handling it quietly? Seems to me it is time to get out the vocal chords as if the crimes were Zionist

    Anyway, thanks for meeting me half-way and making the modification. I hope Robin will not be “cross” with you (British term only).

  9. Akbar
    That is what diplomacy is. Meeting at some point on the road. Each tries to get the point closer to their position. And Robin is doing the same in his own way exactly as you would for your own position.

  10. Hello Syrian Prometheus
    Welcome on board. Sorry to be late in approving your first comment. I was taking some much needed nap. From now on, you should have no problem posting. Comments will be automatically published. I just have to filter the first comment to prevent SPAM.

    Welcome home to WALLS or 7ee6an.

    OTW

  11. Dear Haytham
    I read your article. The one phrase that attracted my attention the most was when you wrote:

    إذ إنه خُدع بالودية التي أبداها أعضاء اللجنة خلال هذه الزيارة بمن فيهم رئيسها الشيخ حمد بن جاسم.

    Off course that curtsy was translated in by regime propaganda trumpets as support and agreement. Just recalling hamster’s comment above, these guys have no clue what diplomacy is. It is evident from their chief diplomat who wants to erase continents and goes on threatening the west with violence. Dumb, history will be at awe how the hell they lasted so long. It will be a class room case study in the role of brutality in destroying peoples.

    Dear Sheila

    Always thoughtful to demonstrate the reality that this is not a sectarian war. Thanks for doing so. The ladies of 7ee6an are shiny examples for all to see. You just demonstrated the argument i make when going out to high-schools telling girls that they don’t lack analytically capacity as the media and stereotyping tries to tell them, in fact they are far better then boys. .

    All
    Just look at Annie’s brilliant idea. I am talking to people around where I am. Let us see what comes out of that brilliant civilized idea. Annie, thanks a million.

  12. Dear OTW:

    This regime is completely disconnected from the reality.

  13. Sorry not been participating much since I have exams and other things.

    This is an important defection though …

  14. Good article Haytham, well done.

    The vibe coming from AL does not sound encouraging at all, I hope I’m mistaken but yeah the regime is highly likely to be injected with another shot of support from bloody Arab leaders.

  15. AP “the UN venom Israel has had to put up with!”
    Oy vey !
    Israel had to put up with it because it deserved it. And much more.
    But until the civil society in Palestine took things in its own hands and launched the BDS movement , the venom was only hot air. A psychological discomfort.

    This being said I marvel at how much you care about Syrians’ well being while continuing to gleefully and unapologetically to oppress the Palestinians.

    I do not understand how one can ask for the freezing of settlements when it should be the dismantling of the illegal buildings. And don’t forget that your friends also occupy Syrian land.

    .

  16. Syria: Arab League under new pressure to act against Assad regime” (telegraph)
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8884600/Syria-Arab-League-under-new-pressure-to-act-against-Assad-regime.html

    Nasrallah warns of regional war if Iran, Syria attacked” (Roee Nahmias, ynetnews)
    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4147052,00.html

    Syria takes bloody new turn; 250 killed in 11 days” (ELIZABETH A. KENNEDY, newsday)
    http://www.newsday.com/news/syria-takes-bloody-new-turn-250-killed-in-11-days-1.3313115

    How Turkey’s Syria policy evolved” (İlhan Tanır, hurriyetdailynews)
    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=how-turkey8217s-syria-policy-evolved-2011-11-11

    Syrian Christian archbishop backs Assad – newspaper” (Reuters)
    http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/11/idINIndia-60470420111111

    Syria and the Arab League” (nytimes)

  17. One, two, three, four, occupation no more
    Five, six, seven, eight, Israel is a terrorist, apartheid, horror, illegal, virtual state

  18. OTW is right, check with Annie for creative solutions. Civil society put the pressure on South Africa and it is now being far more effective than All Arab armies and the UN in dealing with Israel. Why can’t we reach them in Brazil and South Africa now to show them the reality of the Syrian regime.

  19. Like the sound of the idea, keep the thoughts coming eh. So do we know exactly what to reach in SA and Brazil?

  20. Remembering Hafez al-Assad

    “Systematically describes Bashar’s brutal approach, concluding that he had “done virtually nothing to improve his country’s human rights record” and cited Syria’s human rights situation as one of the worst in the world.”

    Ref, Robert M. Danin

  21. TRUE
    We need to introduce the Syrian revolution as liberation movement. Annie and her friends and like minded people in Europe show in the thousands when Israel commits anything similar to what is being done to Syrians. Palestinian liberation and rights movement has gathered plenty of friends. Where are ours. Our rallies have Syrians only and a few European or American friends. The regime’s propaganda outside keep portraying it as a resister of US hegemony, and as long as we use the same mental framework, they will have the upper hand in sidelining those who are traditionally friends of liberation.

    I look at Akbar’s questions as opportunity to extract lessons. He is under no illusion as to where our hearts lie when it comes to Palestinians, and he is no fool to think that we will favor Israelis over Palestinians. But when he asks where were we, during the years of atrocities inflicted by the Syrian regime, and our only answer is that we were helping the regime resist, we are also exposing a sad reality that over the years, we were helping pave the way for liberation and freedom minded people worldwide to look at our own liberation cause with suspicion as being controlled by the hegemonic US, Europe, and so on. If we don’t break that language, we doom our selves.

    We are a liberation movement, no less no more. And if leftists worldwide with the exception of kind and gentle people like Annie continue to participate in demeaning our revolution, then we should confront them and not be shy just because they claim love of Palestinian rights. Cut and paste diarrhea ANN on SC is but an example of this fake support for Palestinians. When was the last time anyone of us did what Akbar does, go in sites and see what they write about Syria and expose the lies. This is why I did not stop posting on SC, and other places. I love Annie, and I think we should empower her in any way we can to get our message. We should also confront everyone who pretends to love Palestinians and defend their rights, but is hostile to us simply because the regime convinced them that it is against imperialism. Let us be brave, and confront our selves.

    Let us start by writing to the Brazilian embassy (as well as to many embassies from Latin America) in our countries, send an editorial to the newspaper (Brazilian diplomats are very engaged). And see what happens. The regime is counting on South and Latin America for its long-term survival. And if it takes isolating Chavez, whom some of us may have thought of as Hero, I’d say screw him. He is trying to become his own country’s Hafez Assad. We’ll be doing Valenzuelan a favor.

  22. Hello,

    I’ve been reading that some of you didn’t realize how bad the regime was before the revolution. I guess before trying to figure out the Menhibak phenomenon which I personally attribute to the effects of a Totalitarian regime on a society, I would like ANYONE to explain how come you didn’t realize how bad it had been. When Besho was appointed, I knew it was the same book but with a different cover. They treated Syrians as fools. The father claimed it was a “corrective” movement when he took over. The son claimed he was fighting corruption when he was appointed. They really took Syrians for fools. The country has been in decline ever since the Ba’ath took over. Theyve never done anything right. I never bought their crap about fighting Israel. Please, anyone, explain what you saw that made you think the regime did anything for the good of the country.

  23. And by the way يلعن روحك يا حافظ (I hope I don’t get banned for this)

  24. They really took Syrians for fools.

    Syrians were cowards and preferred play “no clue game” as if they’ve been fooled just to justify their uselessness till they grew some balls.

  25. Dear Syrian Prometheus,
    Welcome to our small group. It is an honor to have you here.

  26. Busting Myths about Israel one anti-Zionist at a Time

    I look at Akbar’s questions as opportunity to extract lessons. He is under no illusion as to where our hearts lie when it comes to Palestinians, and he is no fool to think that we will favor Israelis over Palestinians. But when he asks where were we, during the years of atrocities inflicted by the Syrian regime, and our only answer is that we were helping the regime resist, we are also exposing a sad reality that over the years, we were helping pave the way for liberation and freedom minded people worldwide to look at our own liberation cause with suspicion as being controlled by the hegemonic US, Europe, and so on. If we don’t break that language, we doom our selves.

    Syrian Hamster,

    I could not have said it any better. Thank you for taking my poor writing skills and making it easy to read.

    Israel had to put up with it because it deserved it. And much more.

    Annie,

    Pull-eeze! See Syrian Hamster’s response to get a clue.

    This being said I marvel at how much you care about Syrians’ well being while continuing to gleefully and unapologetically to oppress the Palestinians.

    Annie,

    Are Israeli Arabs Palestinians? If so, they are the freest and most economically successful Arabs in the ME.

    do not understand how one can ask for the freezing of settlements when it should be the dismantling of the illegal buildings. And don’t forget that your friends also occupy Syrian land.

    Annie,

    You don’t understand, but you (and many others like you) simply refuse to learn the facts about Israel, and instead, prefer to rely on the Arab and muslim media.

    Israel officially does not occupy Syrian land. But if Syria wants it back so badly, she can fight for it, or better yet, sign a tangible peace agreement. Israel is the only country that has occupied land claimed by the Palestinian people, and actually returned it to the Palestinians. Egypt and Jordan would never even think about it.

  27. Dear Mundas,
    I agree with you 100%. I have also watched Syria’s decline over the years, when almost everyone else inside the country truly believed that it was moving forward. I think my nephew said it best: many Syrians are suffering from the Stockholm syndrome. This is “a condition experienced by some people who have been held as hostages for an extended time in which they begin to identify with and feel sympathetic toward their captors”. I think at one point many of us were inflicted with this condition. We believed, because we wanted to believe, we trusted, because we wanted to trust and we convinced ourselves that things were improving, because we really had no other choice. We were deprived of the basics for so long that every crump that was thrown at us we viewed as a big fat cake.
    I remember when toilet paper was an item that we could not buy in Syria. My parents had it smuggled from Lebanon and this is just one example. All I can say is how sad and pathetic.

  28. Dear Muhammad,
    Thank you for posting the youtube clip. The gentleman makes a whole lot of sense. I hope he is right and things will happen soon.
    The situation in Jabal Alzawieh is not looking good. As bad as things are there, it is being over shadowed by events in Homs, as Homs is a very large city. How are things going in Idleb the city? Have you heard anything new.

  29. @ Hamster,
    interesting thinking. There are tons of Syrians in South America…where are they and their voices??? and who is influencing them??

    @ True
    LOL.

    @ Annie,
    Now you get your turn to get sucked down the Akbar drain… cause he hangs on and doesn’t let go ! ha ha… but I know you are a much better match than i can ever be : )

  30. Triple ditto to Sheila’s explanation @ 2:08, about sums it up for many people I talked to and my own conclusions.

    Personally, i just didn’t know any better cause I am not raised in Syria, and I think some American’s like myself grow up with the kind of skepticism and liberal education that makes one suspicious of the American ‘propaganda’ against Syria, and because of the issues about wanting to support Palestine, just as Hamster described. So naturally one tended to believe and excuse the Syrian situation – because it was hard to know what to believe.
    Then a few years ago I read this book “Neither Bread Nor Freedom” by Alan George that was extremely informative.
    not really about the regime’s brutality necessarily but really about the entire structure of the social institutions and how they are entirely controlled by the Baath and the security. And after reading this I became really critical, except that….I was still really against (and I am still feeling this way) any foreign intervention. So – I have believed that it is up to Syrians themselves to make this happen, and they didn’t seem up to the task, or to have the will to achieve it.
    then there was a lot of influence from Joshua and the SC crowd and Camille, who I was good friends with – who made it seem that everything really was changing for the better and that anyone with a ‘peace’ orientation, that I consider myself to be, should support this gradual change rather than be advocating something radical or that could lend any justifications for foreign (US) intervention or harassing.
    There is a contradiction there, (as Hamster describes) a problem to be resolved in terms of attitude, and it must be answered.

  31. peace frm peace, yo Akbar yo listenup yo kidnap blog nt cool yo, pepl die in Συρία nd u throw ur toxin nt cool yo, u dnt care we do yo, ts Παλαιστίνη nt Ισραήλ yo

  32. Dear OTW
    Is there a way to number the comments for each major post/article? After being away for a few hours it’s very difficult to find the spot where one has left off and must go back to the oldest page and work up from there…

  33. Zenobia,

    It is nice to know that I’m now refered to as the “Akbar Drain”. Apparently, there are some on this website who don’t get “sucked-in”. Aboud and Hamster for example. They are opened-minded enough to acknowledge some of my points, and they don’t spout the same tired mythology like “Apartheid”, etc.

    I think you say that in jest, but I really don’t want to be a “nudge” or “drain”. I just would like some acknowledgement of my points, as well as an ability to understand that Israel is not as bad as you were told. I, for example, have no ill-will against Palestine, even though we are still in a state of war.

  34. Syrian forces kill 20, Arab League action urged” (TVNZ)
    http://tvnz.co.nz/world-news/syrian-forces-kill-20-arab-league-action-urged-4525425

    Parts of Syria’s Homs turn normal, others seem lifeless” (xinhuanet)
    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-11/12/c_122269179.htm

    Unrest in Syria Divides a Region as a Border Never Did” (LIAM STACK, nytimes)

    On Patrol With Syrian Army Defectors” (ROBERT MACKEY, nytimes) —MUST WATCH–
    http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/on-patrol-with-syrian-army-defectors/

    Damascus suburb sees week of violent crackdown” (Malachy Browne, storyful)
    http://storyful.com/stories/1000011793

  35. Akbar Palace

    Make us a favor and prove your Zionist theory away from the WALLS, Gheesh these are bloody critical hours for the whole Syrian nation and even the history of Syrians and you’re going on and on about your apartheid virtual state. Man if you found you lost love with Aboud & Hamster then please take it off line with them, and yeah last thing don’t bother to reply back.

  36. These Menhebaks trumpets reflect nothing but their super low IQ, idiocy and dirty minds.

    Thanks TRUE, I now put in the full link. (OTW)

  37. @Akbar,

    it was meant with affection. But it is true…. that you can pretty much turn every conversation into one about Israel….and it gets a bit tiring…since it would be nice to talk about Syria and what is happening in Syria right now without having to be sidetracked for long long stretches in between to talk about Israel Israel Israel or Palestine / Israel Palestine Israel.
    I realize that is your subject and why you are here, but but but… since we have just started this project and this is a critical time and we have a limited readership and writer ship at this point and dealing with the issue of Israel and conflict with Israel and the nature of Israel is basically on the BACK BURNER at the moment….it would be nice to give it a rest a little bit!!!

    And you know i do have an open mind. And yes, Israel is probably NOT as bad as I heard…. although i grew up in Boston, so….you know what….i didn’t hear all that stuff, Instead I had to grow up hearing how evil the ARABS are and how evil the Palestinians are….and how everything has to be done to respect Israel Israel Israel.
    so , i really don’t need a lesson in this area. I know that Israel is made up of myriad kinds of people with all kinds of sympathetic perspectives and it is as diverse as anywhere else. I think Israelis are more realistic many of them and self observing than American ‘supporters’ like yourself – who can seem pretty single minded.
    Anyhow, I had to work really hard to find something good to feel about being of Arabic heritage and middle eastern parent. I was born in 1969, so you know, there was no shortage of sympathy for Israel and hostility towards the surrounding Arab countries being put out on the media stage in America.
    The tide has turned now and now you feel you need to defend it as a life past time. I understand. When I sit in the ME or even with some of my Syrian cousins – one can find me challenging all their stereotypes and prejudices and crazy obsessiveness about Israel and Israelis, and sometimes Jews in general.
    We will have plenty of time for this.

    meanwhile…. lets talk about Syria…

  38. أصوات الشبكة: محاولة اغتيال ناشط سوري… بالصوت والصورة

  39. That’s an interesting and important finding which allows the Turkish army, legally, to cross the Syrian borders and march inside the Syrian land.

    Tension between Syria and Turkey was escalated in late 1998 over Kurdish rebels. Mubarak has taken perhaps the most active role, starting his mission meeting with King Fahd of Saudi Arabia and then flying back and forth between Damascus and Ankara in an attempt to mediate between the two parties.To avert invasion by Turkey, Syria agreed to sign the “Adana Agreement” on October 20, 1998 (Mideast Mirror, 2000)

    The Adana Accords state that the two parties agreed on
    1- A direct telephone link would be established between the two countries
    2- Special representatives were to be appointed in each country’s diplomatic missions
    3- A system of ‘monitoring of security enhancing measures and their effectiveness’ was to be initiated.
    4- Damascus agreed to recognize the Worker’s Party of Kurdistan (Partiya Karkerana Kurdistan, or PKK) as a terrorist organization
    5- If Ankara perceives any national threat, then the Turkish army (Türk Kara Kuvvetleri) would be allowed to cross, within reasonable depth, the Syrian borders to chase terrorists.
    (A Solution to Syrian Terrorism by Ely Karmon)

    Wow and that devil Hafez kept talking about Syrian sovereignty bla bla bla!!! Now If Betho keeps demonstrating his stupidity, as usual, and plays the PKK card again then he’s just giving the Turkish the green light to come and kick his ass for good.

  40. Is it just me or is some one also noticing the increasing demonstrations in Aleppo?

  41. http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/159303EB-0D23-4BD7-883E-38AB861EB6BE.htm
    293 مظاهرة بسوريا والقتلى بالعشرات

    Demonstration points:
    This past Friday: 293
    Last week: 277
    The week before: 168 (I think)
    Since March 15th, hundreds of towns or areas have witnessed demonstrations. 

    Here’s my UNscientific and humble analysis. In Statistics, this is a pretty good survey sampling. There is a study that found that for every 26 unsatisfied customers, there’s only One (1) that bothers with filing a complaint even though the other 25 are just as unsatisfied. Using the aforementioned analogy and under the brutal circumstances in Syria, each demonstrator represents at least 100.

    Conclusion,
    Almost the entire country is against the regime and there is no way they can stop this revolution.

  42. Dear Zenobia,
    You are absolutely right. There is nothing that can substitute for the experience of living in Syria: going to school, running a business or just simply living on a daily basis with no semblance of a system or a structure. And you are also right that we all embraced the concept of gradual change while keeping order, as the way to go for Syria. We all watched the chaos in most Eastern Europe and Russia that resulted from sudden change and the outstanding success of China with its gradual change policy. However, we missed a very important factor in all this, it is good governance. It really does not matter what type of system you have in place, what matters is the motivation of the people in charge: are they focused on the country and the people or their own personal glorification and enrichment? Of course, moral hazard is more likely in a totalitarian system, because the incentives are there and power corrupts. So after years of sitting and waiting patiently for change to come to Syria, some of us finally saw the light. It is not coming and it will never come while these people are in charge. This jerked us out of our long hibernation and threw us into the arms of an uprising.

  43. I am fully satisfied with the Arab leagues latest decision.

  44. Thank you Hamster for your kind words.

    Why putting up with the regime so long ?

    When I lived in Syria (2002-2007) I did not realise how bad it was because I had somehow slipped a self censoring chip in my brain; I just knew not to say certain things (or even think certain thoughts). I had no contacts with the opposition. I remember seeing one day near Bagdad street lots of police and when I asked what happened, I was told there were pple protesting for human rights. I could not relate to that, thinking “sure, they are crazy”.

    Once, I had an appointment with Ammar Abdulhamid who at the time was in a lot of trouble, and eventually left the country, and I chickened out when I was told this is not moufid. Once I published a post requesting timidly a little more freedom and hope for a future and I took it down when met with displeasure. So there was nothing heroic about my stance.

    I went to “spontaneous” demonstrations but without any problem of conscience since it was protesting the Iraq war or the Mehlis report.

    But I felt really humiliated at election time with these tents along the otstrad where people had better show up. And the whole mockery of the ballots; it was utter contempt towards Syrians. Yet I did not write about that and I really wanted to settle in Syria for good.

    A half hearted loyalty to the regime was made possible because of its position in relationship to the cumbersome neighbour and the US. And the fact that Palestinians were better treated in Syria than in Lebanon for instance.

    And when the revolution started and I was safely banned in Belgium I still hesitated to side with the rebellion out of fear for the possible doubtful alliances the opponents might get into. Finally, the unspeakable cruelty of the repression made it an easy jump. The “benevolent” doctor became a monster and he has to go. And I must say that Burhan won my heart.

  45. True, Zenobia,

    I will guarantee you something: I will NOT bring up the issue of Israel and Zionism first. If you noticed (and more so on SC’s conspiracy-laden website), the topic of Israel is almost always brought up out of nowhere by ARAB participants. Perhaps you should ask the Arab participants here to keep the issue local to Syria as well.

    Anyway I agree that the purpose of this website at this time is how to gain freedom for Syrians.

  46. SGNLID said I am fully satisfied with the Arab leagues latest decision.

    I feel the same way. It is a step in the right direction.

  47. SGID

    “I am fully satisfied with the Arab leagues latest decision.”

    A strong, decisive decision with tangible and immediate effect. Who are these people, and what have they done with the REAL Arab League? :p

    Hey Besho, whoever told you that an assault on Baba Amr would finish everything off either 1) really hates you 2) has it in for you 3) really wants to see you go 4) all of the above.

    Yesterday I said that it was a 50/50 chance that the Arab League would take the actions it took. I had no idea that the voting would be so overwhelmingly in favor. Iraq abstained, and only The Syrian province of Greater Beirut Lebanon and Yemen voted against. Astonishing.

    The AL also directly addressed the Syrian Army. A strong, strong signal, not very subtle, but the significance of which will of course go over the head of the Baathists. Maybe we should draw them a diagram. In crayon.

  48. On this website, I’m restrained. Elsewhere, as SGID can tell you, I’m gloating in a very shameful way 🙂 🙂 🙂

  49. Dear Akbar Palace,
    Please try to restrain yourself for the time being and keep in mind that Israel is part and parcel of what is happening in Syria. It has been and still is the reason for everything happening in Syria, according to the Syrian regime. The “big conspiracy” is always blamed mainly on Israel and the US. So when people bring up Israel, it is not in an effort to antagonize you, it is just part of the problem we are facing. I hope you can understand the dilemma.

  50. Dear Aboud, Mundas and SGID,
    At the risk of sounding like all other conspiracy theorists, I would like to contend that the US and some countries in Europe have played a role in the bold decision made today by the Arab League, just like what happened to Libya.
    By the way, I admire all three of you very much. You are in the middle of it all, unlike us sitting in the comfort of our homes somewhere else in the world.
    Aboud, I talked to my sister-in-law, who is from Homs (currently lives in Halab with my traitor of a brother). She still has family in Homs. She was in the US visiting. She told me horror stories of what is going on there. Just unbelievable.
    SGID, Halab has been boiling for a while. All the outspoken pro-regime Halabis are from the upper middle class. The majority of the population is like everybody else in Syria and feels like everybody else in Syria. You can see that it is the same areas demonstrating in Halab: Salah alddeen, Alsakhour, Kahouet alshaar and Seif al Dowleh. As I have always said: it is just a matter of time.

  51. Dear Annie,
    Please do not feel bad. Your experience and attitude toward the Syrian regime was echoed by many well intentioned people. Who wants chaos and disorder?. We really believed that the guy was serious about reform and looked at China as a proof that it could be done, but alas, things kept getting worse.

  52. The regime’s response, is, not surprisingly, as follows;

    “Conspiracy conspiracy America conspiracy conspiracy tools of the Zionists conspiracy conspiracy conspiracy plot conspiracy plot plot conspiracy”.

    What I didn’t see coming was the way the regime’s representative swore at Nabil Al Arabi and the Qatar FM. I mean, he actually used swear words. Man, what diplomatic school did he graduate from? Once again, the Waleed Mu’allem doctrine never fails to astonish us. At the very moment the regime needed to call upon extraordinary diplomatic finesse and sophistication in negotiations….their rep swore at the other reps *facepalm*

  53. Sheila said “the US and some countries in Europe have played a role in the bold decision made ”

    I have no doubt. But frankly, I don’t care.

  54. Dear Sheila:

    This is international politics. The whole plan was devised by the foreign ministers of Qatar and France.
    I wrote about the role of Hamad ibn Jassim (the foreign minister of Qatar) in my last article.

    The US is in the backseat with the Obama doctrine of “leading from behind”. I wrote one day comment on Obama policy saying “If you lead from behind, you get only the behind”.

  55. Mousa Ibrahim has morphed into a fat white-haired old man frothing at the mouth in the Syrian Mafia’s embassy in Cairo.

  56. Yes Sheila, Al Arabiya reported it. And just when I thought the day couldn’t get any better, we were treated to the regime’s ambassador’s “press conference”. He was hysterical, accusing 19 Arab countries of being in the pay of the Americans.

    My favorite part was when he claimed that on the 3rd of November, 68 mutilated bodies were discovered in Homs. In public squares no less. And one of them was a school bus full of children, who apparently were so enthusiastic about their studies that they went to school DURING THE EID HOLIDAYS! *facepalm*

  57. The regime ambassador swearing at the Arab League occurred during the meeting, it wasn’t televised. But Al Arabiya reported and subsequent commentators mentioned it. I’m sure some newspaper or website will provide the details.

    In-between the 15th and 16th mention of the word “conspiracy”, the regime’s trumpet just called the Qatari FM “The Foreign Minister of Israel” on Al Arabiya. He also threatened to burn the Gulf. I pray the trumpets get given all the airtime they could ever want. No need to give equal time to the opposition, the trumpets are capable of hanging themselves with their own words. “Conspiracy conspiracy plot plot 19 Arab nations are in the pay of Obama who is in the pay of Zionists who are in the pay of Qatar who are in the pay of Zionists”.

Share your thinking

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s